The main enemy of strategic thinking is not the market. It is not competitors. It is not disruption. It is not technology.
It is YOU. Your opinions. Your beliefs. Your convictions. Your unconscious biases. Your ego.
Strategic thinking requires something uncomfortable: Restraint. Restraint to not jump to conclusions. Restraint to not defend your past decisions. Restraint to not fall in love with your own solutions. Leaders are paid to decide. But the danger is deciding too fast based on what you THINK you know.
Strategy disruption often starts with self disruption. You must question your own certainty before questioning the market. Facts Over Feelings When analysing information, focus on facts. Not assumptions.
Do not “think” what the financial problem is. Open the books. Do the maths. Sit with your Finance Manager.
Do not “believe” what customers want. Run serious focus groups. Analyse behaviour data. Deep dive with the Marketing team.
Do not “guess” market trends. Read the economic reports. Study the research. Challenge your understanding.
As Edwards Deming famously said: “In God we trust, all others must bring data.” Make that your strategic discipline!
But Opinions Do Matter
Now, here is the nuance. Opinions are valuable.
The opinions of your shareholders. The perceptions of your clients. The frustrations of (non) clients. The instincts of your innovation team. These are not noise. They are signals.
The mistake is not having opinions. The mistake is mistaking individual opinions for truth. That is where scale matters.
Do not interview five clients. Interview 500. Or 5,000 if possible.
Do not rely on one sales manager’s intuition. Aggregate patterns across regions, segments, time.
The law of large numbers is your ally. When you collect enough data points, opinions transform into statistical insights. You move from bias to evidence. From narrative to fact. From ego to clarity.
Humility Is a Strategic Skill
Strategic thinking demands intellectual humility. You must accept that you do not know everything. That your experience can mislead you. That your success story can blind you. You must be eager to understand. Willing to learn. Ready to change your mind.
Because strategy is not about defending your worldview. It is about updating it.
The most dangerous sentence in leadership is: “I already know.”
The most powerful one is: “Let’s check.”
Disrupt Yourself First
Before you try to disrupt your industry, disrupt yourself. Your assumptions. Your mental models. Your reflex reactions. Your favourite solutions.
Break your internal barriers. Interrogate your certainty. Ground your thinking in data.
Strategy is not about being right. It is about getting it right.
And that often starts with admitting that you might be wrong.
Author: Anael Granoux | Strategy Advisor, Lecturer, Speaker